TL;DR

Israel-Iran conflict drives global selloff, oil >$100/bbl; U.S. crypto inflows surge; Taiwan tightens chip curbs.

Highlights

• Global equities fell sharply after Israeli airstrikes in Tehran and Iranian missile retaliation; S&P 500 futures dropped up to 1.9%, oil surged above $100/bbl 1.
• Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of major oil supply disruptions; Iraqi officials warned crude could spike to $200–$300/bbl if closure occurs 2.
• Israeli strikes hit Iran’s South Pars gas field and other energy assets, causing fires and partial shutdowns 11.
• Iran closed its airspace and halted all flights amid ongoing attacks; civilian shelters opened in Tehran 34.
• Iran warned of expanded missile strikes, including possible targeting of U.S. bases; U.S. quietly supplied Israel with 300 Hellfire missiles ahead of the escalation 57.
• U.S. redeployed some counter-drone defenses from Ukraine to the Middle East to protect regional assets 10.
• U.S.-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday were canceled; diplomatic progress stalled 9.
• Putin and Trump held a call on the Israel-Iran conflict and Ukraine, but no new initiatives emerged 8.
• Taiwan blacklisted Huawei and SMIC , tightening chip export controls; U.S.-China trade truce extended for three months, but rare-earth/military tech disputes unresolved 1217.
• BlackRock bought $283M in Bitcoin as U.S. spot ETFs added 12,700 BTC; SEC approved Trump Media’s $2.5B Bitcoin treasury plan 1516.
• Sarepta paused Elevidys gene therapy shipments for non-ambulatory patients after a second fatality 14.
• GM announced a $4B investment in U.S. plants to boost gas and EV output, responding to Trump tariffs 13.

Commentary

Markets open Monday under pronounced risk aversion as the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies. Direct Israeli strikes on Tehran—including energy infrastructure—prompted Iranian missile retaliation and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil surged above $100/bbl, with the possibility of further spikes if the strait is disrupted 12. U.S. equities and global risk assets are under pressure, and the risk premium for energy and defense sectors is rising 1.

The U.S. is actively involved, having supplied Israel with advanced missiles and redeployed counter-drone defenses from Ukraine to the Middle East 510. Iran’s threats to expand missile strikes to U.S. bases and its closure of airspace signal sustained regional instability 37. Diplomatic channels remain constrained, with U.S.-Iran nuclear talks canceled and no concrete progress from the Trump-Putin call 89.

Elsewhere, Taiwan’s new export controls on Huawei and SMIC add to ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions 12. The extension of the U.S.-China trade truce averts immediate tariff escalation but leaves critical rare-earth and military tech issues unresolved, keeping pressure on supply chains for semiconductors and defense 17.

Institutional crypto demand remains resilient, with BlackRock and U.S. spot ETFs adding substantial Bitcoin holdings and the SEC approving Trump Media’s $2.5B Bitcoin treasury plan 1516. In corporate news, GM ’s $4B investment in U.S. plants responds to shifting trade and tariff dynamics, while Sarepta faces increased regulatory scrutiny after pausing shipments of its gene therapy following a second fatality 1314.

Watch for further Middle East headlines, especially any confirmed disruption to oil flows or U.S. assets, which could drive additional volatility across equities, energy, and rates. Tech and China-related names may remain sensitive to export control news, and crypto could see continued institutional flows as macro uncertainty persists.