TL;DR

Nvidia, AMD pay U.S. for China chip sales; oil drops on tariffs; Bitcoin nears record highs.

Highlights

• Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China AI chip sales to the U.S. for export licenses; chip stocks retreat after initial optimism1.
• PBOC sets yuan fix much stronger than forecast and drains 433B yuan liquidity, signaling active currency management2.
• Oil slides for a sixth session (Brent $66.40) as new U.S. tariffs on India and looming Russian oil sanctions raise demand concerns; OPEC+ to end production curbs3.
• Saudi crude exports to China set to drop in September after Aramco price hike; Chinese refiners seek alternatives11.
• Iron ore rises 1.6% as China orders Tangshan steel mill shutdowns for pollution control; copper extends gains on Chinese demand12.
• Bitcoin nears record $123,000; Ether above $4,300 as crypto market cap tops $4 trillion on institutional inflows4.
• Ørsted launches $9B rights issue after U.S. offshore wind setbacks; shares plunge up to 26%15.
• Western Union to acquire Intermex for $500M, expanding Latin America remittance reach17.
• Europe pushes for Ukraine’s inclusion in Trump–Putin Alaska summit; U.S. considers trilateral format, NATO urges Ukraine sovereignty7.
• Pakistan’s army chief issues nuclear threats against India from U.S. soil, escalating regional tensions9.
• Australia to recognize Palestinian state at UN in September, diverging from U.S. stance; Israel condemns move6.
• Chinese navy destroyer collides with coast guard vessel near Scarborough Shoal amid South China Sea tensions8.

Commentary

Markets are contending with a mix of trade, currency, and geopolitical developments. The Nvidia and AMD deal to pay a 15% revenue share to the U.S. for China AI chip sales offers a partial workaround to export controls, but chip stocks fell as traders weigh the cost and ongoing policy risk1. This comes as the White House signals further tariffs on China over Russian oil13, and as the U.S.–China trade truce nears expiration14, keeping tech and industrial names volatile.

In commodities, oil continues to fall as U.S. tariffs on India and the threat of secondary sanctions on Russian crude stoke demand uncertainty3, further pressured by OPEC+ plans to unwind supply cuts. Saudi Arabia’s price hike is already reducing Chinese crude imports, forcing refiners to seek alternative sources and potentially shifting trade flows11. Iron ore and copper are finding support from Chinese restocking and pollution-related steel mill shutdowns12, but these gains remain sensitive to broader growth signals.

The PBOC’s stronger-than-expected yuan fix and liquidity withdrawal highlight Beijing’s intent to stabilize the currency amid capital outflow risk and trade headwinds2. Currency traders should watch for further intervention, especially if macro data disappoint. Meanwhile, crypto assets are rallying sharply on institutional inflows and anticipation of a dovish Fed, with Bitcoin and Ether near record highs4. Tuesday’s U.S. CPI is a key risk event for both FX and risk assets.

Geopolitics remain a source of headline risk. The upcoming Trump–Putin summit, with Europe pressing for Ukraine’s inclusion7, and Pakistan’s nuclear threats against India9, both underscore persistent regional tensions. Australia’s recognition of Palestine6 and the South China Sea naval incident8 add to the diplomatic cross-currents. Traders should monitor for volatility in EM assets, defense, and energy names tied to these developments.