Highlights

• US Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3% (first decline since 2022), driven by a pre-tariff import surge; PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6%1.
• ADP April private payrolls rose just 62,000, well below expectations, marking the slowest gain since July 20243.
• Markets now fully price in 125 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a 63% probability of a cut at the June FOMC8.
• US equities remain under pressure (S&P 500 and Dow -8% YTD, Nasdaq -11.6%), with Trump blaming "Biden overhang" and touting post-tariff boom2.
• Senate to vote late afternoon on a resolution to revoke Trump’s emergency tariff powers; White House threatens veto4.
• US PCE inflation was flat MoM in March; core PCE fell to 2.6% YoY (lowest since 2021), while German core CPI rose to 2.9%10.
• US crude inventories fell 2.7 million barrels (vs. +429k expected); gasoline stocks also down, but Saudi Arabia signals willingness to sustain low oil prices, sending crude down 2.7%57.
• US sanctions $500 million Iranian oil smuggling network as nuclear talks continue; Israel strikes militants in Syria, raising regional tension619.
• US considers equity stakes in mineral companies and pushes for minerals deals with Ukraine; minerals agreement signing delayed by Kyiv111618.
• Google and Apple reportedly close to a mid-2025 deal to integrate Gemini AI into Siri, potentially announced at WWDC in June12.
• Nvidia CEO urges Trump to revise AI chip export rules, citing competition from China’s Huawei and the need for on-shore manufacturing13.
• Crypto sector active: Coinbase expands Bitcoin-backed loan product14, Galaxy Digital targets Nasdaq listing17, Ripple’s $4–5B bid for Circle rejected as Circle eyes IPO15, and Visa launches stablecoin cards in Latin America20.

Commentary

Markets are closing out April on a defensive note as a string of soft US macro data and ongoing policy uncertainty weigh on risk sentiment. The first contraction in US GDP since 2022—driven by a rush of pre-tariff imports and tepid consumer spending—has rattled confidence, especially with ADP payrolls missing by a wide margin13. These signals of slowing growth have prompted traders to price in a full 125 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a June cut now seen as more likely than not8. The combination of weaker economic momentum and sticky PCE inflation (headline 3.6%, core at a three-year low but still above target) leaves the Fed in a tricky spot, balancing recession risk against persistent price pressures110.

Equities remain under pressure, with major indices deep in correction territory YTD. Political rhetoric is heating up as President Trump blames the previous administration for the selloff and promises a post-tariff economic renaissance2. The Senate’s upcoming vote on revoking Trump’s tariff authority injects further headline risk; a successful resolution could spark a short-term relief rally, but a White House veto remains likely4. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the future of US trade policy is already distorting economic behavior, as evidenced by the import-driven GDP drag1.

In commodities, oil prices are under renewed pressure after Saudi Arabia signaled it will not support supply cuts and is prepared for a period of low prices to expand market share7. This, combined with a surprise draw in US crude inventories, is keeping energy markets volatile5. The new US sanctions on Iranian oil networks and rising Middle East tensions (with Israel striking targets in Syria) add a geopolitical risk premium, but for now, bearish supply dynamics are dominating619.

In the tech and crypto space, sector-specific headlines are driving relative outperformance and volatility. Google and Apple ’s potential AI partnership could be a catalyst for both stocks and the broader AI ecosystem12, while Nvidia ’s push for export rule changes and on-shore chip manufacturing is a reminder of ongoing US-China tech rivalry13. Crypto markets are buoyed by product innovation (Coinbase loans14, Visa stablecoin cards20) and capital markets activity (Galaxy Digital ’s Nasdaq listing17, Ripple’s failed Circle bid15), underscoring the sector’s resilience and ongoing institutionalization.

Traders should watch for late-day volatility around the Senate tariff vote4, monitor any Fed commentary for clues on the June meeting8, and keep an eye on oil price swings as supply/demand dynamics evolve57. In tech, any updates on the Google -Apple AI deal or chip policy could move mega-cap names1213. In crypto, regulatory and M&A headlines remain key swing factors151720. The crosscurrents of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and policy uncertainty suggest a defensive stance into the close, with a focus on quality, liquidity, and event risk management.