TL;DR

US weighs China tariff cuts; China, Taiwan exports surge; Bitcoin tops $100K on ETF inflows.

Highlights

• US-UK trade deal cuts US tariffs on UK autos to 10% and removes UK duties on US beef; partial relief for autos, metals, and agriculture 1.
• Trump administration weighing reduction of China tariffs to 50–54% (from 145%) ahead of Swiss trade talks; China grants exemptions on some US imports 2.
• China’s April exports rise 8.1% YoY, led by ASEAN and EU demand; US-bound exports fall 21% amid tariffs 11.
• Taiwan’s exports jump 30% YoY to record high; TWD posts largest daily rally since 1988 as exporters convert USD 12.
• SMIC Q1 profit up 161.9% YoY but warns of up to 6% Q2 revenue decline; $7B expansion plan announced 17.
• Nvidia to launch downgraded H20 AI chip in China by July to comply with US export controls NVDA 6.
• UK blacklists 100 Russian “shadow fleet” oil tankers in largest sanctions package; EU considering similar steps 4.
• US and Russia discuss potential restoration of Russian gas flows to Europe as Gazprom faces $7B loss; EU debates ban, Russia and China advance pipeline talks 8.
• India conducts strikes on nine terror camps in Pakistan/PoJK after Pahalgam attack; Pakistani equities fall, Islamabad seeks emergency loans 320.
• China launches crackdown on smuggling/export of strategic minerals (gallium, rare earths), tightening control over supply chains 14.
• Bitcoin tops $100,000 on ETF inflows; Ethereum jumps 20% after Pectra upgrade; Coinbase acquires Deribit for $2.9B 1516.
• Nissan cancels $1.1B Japan EV battery plant, cutting 500 jobs amid financial pressures 18.

Commentary

Trade policy remains in focus as the US signals a possible reduction of tariffs on Chinese imports, with China reciprocating through exemptions on select US goods 2. This comes as China’s April export data beat expectations, driven by robust demand from ASEAN and the EU, even as US-bound shipments dropped sharply 11. Taiwan’s export surge—particularly in tech—has fueled a historic rally in the Taiwan dollar, highlighting the region’s supply chain strength but raising competitiveness concerns for exporters as the local currency appreciates 12.

The US-UK trade deal offers targeted relief for autos and agriculture but leaves broader trade barriers in place 1. In tech, SMIC ’s strong Q1 profit is tempered by a cautious Q2 outlook, reflecting ongoing trade and supply chain uncertainty 17. Nvidia ’s move to launch a downgraded AI chip in China illustrates the ongoing impact of US export restrictions on the global semiconductor industry 6. China’s crackdown on mineral exports further tightens strategic supply chains, with potential implications for electronics and EV production globally 14.

Geopolitical tensions are elevated in South Asia following India’s strikes in Pakistan/PoJK, prompting market volatility and a sharp selloff in Pakistani equities. Islamabad’s appeal for emergency loans underscores the financial strain 320. In energy, the UK’s expanded sanctions on Russia’s oil shipping fleet and ongoing EU debate over Russian gas imports keep commodity markets on alert 48. Simultaneously, US-Russia discussions about restoring gas flows to Europe and Russia-China pipeline talks signal shifting energy alliances amid Gazprom’s losses 8.

In digital assets, Bitcoin ’s break above $100,000 and Ethereum ’s post-upgrade rally are supported by strong ETF inflows and institutional participation 15. Coinbase ’s acquisition of Deribit signals further expansion in crypto derivatives, with sector volatility likely to remain high 16. Meanwhile, Nissan’s cancellation of a major EV battery plant in Japan highlights ongoing challenges in the auto sector amid shifting demand and financial constraints 18.

Traders should monitor further trade policy announcements (US-China, US-UK), FX intervention risks (notably in Taiwan), semiconductor supply chain developments, and geopolitical headlines from South Asia and Europe. Energy and tech remain key sectors for volatility, while crypto continues to attract institutional flows.