Highlights

• Tesla Q1 net income plunged 71%1 amid sharp EU sales drop1; Musk to reduce government role to refocus on company1, shares rebound 8% after hours12.
• U.S. equities surged: S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +2.5% after Trump signals lower China tariffs and backs Fed Chair Powell2; Treasury yields fell14.
• OPEC+ to discuss June output hike as oil futures drop $2 to four-year lows3; Kazakh overproduction and weak demand pressure prices3.
• Boeing faces Chinese delivery freeze for 50 jets due to tariff dispute4; three 737 MAX jets returned4, company seeks new buyers4.
• Major U.S. airlines (Southwest, American, Alaska) withdraw 2025 forecasts7, report Q1 losses7, and announce cost cuts amid demand and tariff uncertainty7.
• ServiceNow beat Q1 estimates with 18.5% revenue growth, strong AI demand5; stock up 11%5.
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates, posted first same-store sales decline since 20206; shares fell 5% after hours6.
• Novavax shares surged 21% as its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine nears full FDA approval8.
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fall to 1990s lows9; auctions see steady demand9, but some countries shift to Bitcoin9.
• Goldman, Deutsche forecast further U.S. dollar decline13; euro seen reaching $1.30 as current account deficit and trade policy weigh13.
• Bitcoin hits $93,000 as institutions buy on de-dollarization17; Cantor, SoftBank, Tether launch $4B bitcoin treasury firm19.
• Gold rebounds above $3,340/oz after sharp selloff20; volatility driven by U.S.-China trade uncertainty20 and weaker dollar20.

Commentary

Risk assets are rebounding sharply in early trade, fueled by President Trump’s unexpectedly dovish tone on China tariffs220 and renewed support for Fed Chair Powell2. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s strong gains2 signal a return of risk appetite, particularly in tech, despite ongoing macro headwinds. Tesla’s battered results—marked by a 71% profit drop1 and a 45% collapse in European sales1—were overshadowed after-hours by Elon Musk’s pledge to refocus on the company1, triggering a relief rally in the stock12. ServiceNow’s robust earnings and the surge in Novavax highlight ongoing investor interest in AI5 and healthcare innovation8.

The macro backdrop remains challenging. U.S. leading indicators fell more than expected14, and major airlines are withdrawing 2025 guidance as tariffs and demand uncertainty bite7. Boeing’s China woes underscore how trade tensions are directly impacting industrials4, while OPEC+’s struggle to support oil prices amid talk of output hikes and Kazakh overproduction is weighing on energy3. Chipotle’s miss and same-store sales decline point to a cooling U.S. consumer6, even as new home sales and lower mortgage rates offer a counterpoint in housing14.

In fixed income, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries have dropped to multi-decade lows9, though auction demand remains solid for now9. The dollar’s recent slide is set to continue, according to Goldman and Deutsche13, with the euro potentially heading to $1.3013. This currency weakness, combined with de-dollarization flows17, is fueling institutional demand for Bitcoin, now near $93,00017, and supporting gold’s rebound above $3,340/oz after a volatile week20. The launch of a $4B bitcoin treasury firm by Cantor, SoftBank, and Tether further cements crypto’s growing role as an alternative store of value19.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Russian missile attacks on Kyiv15 and nuclear rhetoric from Moscow16 keeping a bid under safe havens. Meanwhile, legal and political battles over tariffs12 and emissions standards10 add to policy uncertainty. Traders should watch for further headlines on U.S.-China220 and U.S.-Canada trade11, OPEC+ output decisions3, and Supreme Court rulings on state climate authority10.

In summary, while today’s equity bounce is encouraging, the cross-currents of trade, policy, and geopolitical risk mean volatility is likely to persist. Focus on sector rotation—tech and AI remain leadership areas5, while industrials and consumer cyclicals face headwinds46. Stay nimble in rates and FX as the dollar weakens13, and monitor flows into gold and crypto as alternative hedges2017.