TL;DR

Fed holds rates steady amid Trump pressure; oil drops as Israel-Iran ceasefire falters; Nvidia insiders sell.

Highlights

• Fed keeps rates at 4.25%–4.50%; Powell faces Congressional grilling as Trump demands 200–300bps in cuts15.
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cut late in 2025, citing tariff-driven inflation11.
• WTI crude drops 11% to $65 on Israel-Iran ceasefire news, but truce already breaking down with renewed strikes and mutual accusations23.
• Iran launches missile attack on US Al Udeid base in Qatar; minimal damage, US military remains on alert15.
• Nvidia CEO and director initiate large share sales near record highs after a 53% YTD rally7.
• Circle market cap surges past $67B post-IPO, outpacing USDC supply as stablecoin sector expands14.
• FHFA to study inclusion of crypto assets in US mortgage applications, signaling potential for broader adoption10.
• Uber and Waymo launch fully autonomous robotaxi service in Atlanta, expanding US commercial AV footprint16.
• Heat dome pushes East Coast temps above 100°F, triggering warnings and potential infrastructure impacts13.
• NATO summit opens with US push for 5% GDP defense spending; Ukraine gets new Dutch military aid12.

Commentary

US traders face a complex open with monetary policy in sharp focus. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady was expected, but the policy outlook is clouded by President Trump’s aggressive push for deep cuts and internal Fed divisions15. Powell’s Congressional testimony today will be closely watched for any shift in tone, especially as Atlanta Fed’s Bostic flags just a single late-2025 cut amid tariff-driven inflation11. Treasury yields may remain volatile as markets parse Fed commentary and the White House’s public pressure1511.

Energy markets are volatile after WTI crude plunged 11% on the Israel-Iran ceasefire, only for the truce to falter within hours23. Renewed Israeli strikes and Iranian missile attacks—including on a US base in Qatar—underscore persistent geopolitical risk315. While oil prices are off recent highs, traders should stay alert for further headlines that could quickly reverse sentiment in energy and defense sectors2315.

In equities, Nvidia’s insider selling may prompt some profit-taking after a strong rally, but underlying AI demand remains robust7. The surge in Circle’s valuation and the FHFA’s consideration of crypto in mortgage applications highlight accelerating mainstream adoption of digital assets, potentially supporting both crypto equities and tokens1410. Meanwhile, Uber and Waymo’s Atlanta robotaxi launch signals continued momentum in US autonomous vehicle deployment16.

Extreme heat on the East Coast could impact utilities, transportation, and consumer sectors, with infrastructure stress and potential short-term disruptions13. The NATO summit and new Ukraine aid are unlikely to move US markets directly but add to the geopolitical backdrop12.