TL;DR

White House keeps all Iran strike options open; airlines suspend Gulf flights; key two-week diplomatic window.

Highlights

• White House says all military options—including tactical nuclear weapons—remain on the table as Trump weighs strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site; decision expected by July 3 1.
• Trump gives diplomats two weeks to achieve de-escalation with Iran; US military assets repositioned in the Gulf 2.
• FBI increases surveillance of Iran-linked sleeper cells in the US amid fears of domestic reprisals if strikes occur 3.
• US intelligence warns Iran could pursue nuclear weaponization if Fordow is bombed or Supreme Leader Khamenei is killed; Iran reportedly close to nuclear capability 4.
• Israeli drone strike hits IRGC base in northwestern Iran; Iran claims to have moved enriched uranium to secret fortified sites 67.
• Major US airlines (American , United ) suspend Gulf flights due to regional conflict; other international carriers follow 5.
• UK, France, Germany, and EU to meet Iranian officials in Geneva for talks; UK’s Lammy cites two-week window for diplomacy 8.
• Hezbollah signals intent to support Iran and may escalate involvement if conflict widens 10.
• Australia closes Tehran embassy and evacuates staff, citing deteriorating security 15.
• GOP tax bill advances with “Trump accounts” provision: $1,000 investment accounts for every US newborn 13.
• Semler Scientific announces plan to accumulate 105,000 Bitcoin by 2027 as part of its treasury strategy 14.

Commentary

Middle East escalation remains the central risk for US markets. The White House has not ruled out any military options—including tactical nuclear weapons—as President Trump weighs a strike on Iran’s Fordow facility 1. A two-week window for diplomacy is in place, but US military repositioning and heightened FBI monitoring of Iran-linked sleeper cells underscore the seriousness of the situation 23. US intelligence assessments suggest Iran could move rapidly toward nuclear weaponization if its facilities are attacked or if its leadership is targeted, increasing the stakes for all actors 4.

The regional conflict is already disrupting commercial activity. Major US airlines have suspended Gulf routes, and other international carriers are following suit, highlighting operational and supply chain risks 5. Energy markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines, especially given Iran’s stated leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and oil supplies 7. Defensive sectors and traditional safe havens (Treasuries , gold , USD ) may see continued flows as traders hedge against further escalation and possible proxy attacks 412.

European diplomatic efforts in Geneva offer a narrow path to de-escalation, but Iran’s leadership has rejected a ceasefire and claims only a fraction of its military capacity has been deployed 812. The risk of Hezbollah expanding its involvement and the closure of Australia’s Tehran embassy both point to a wider internationalization of the conflict 1015.

On the domestic policy front, the GOP’s “Trump accounts” provision could have long-term implications for US asset managers and financials, but near-term market focus will remain on geopolitical headlines 13. Semler Scientific ’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation plan is notable for crypto markets, but is unlikely to move broader risk sentiment absent a wider institutional trend 14.