TL;DR

U.S.-Saudi $600B investment and AI deals, Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, U.S. eases AI chip export rules.

Highlights

• U.S. rescinds Biden-era AI chip export rule, but warns against use of Huawei chips and tightens supply chain guidance1.
• Trump and Saudi Arabia sign $600B investment pact and $142B arms deal; U.S. tech and defense firms included2.
• Saudi Arabia’s Humain AI venture secures 18,000 Nvidia chips for a 500MW data center; Nvidia shares rally13.
• Trump administration considers allowing UAE’s G42 to buy over 1 million Nvidia chips despite security concerns14.
• U.S. to lift all sanctions on Syria, potentially reopening trade and financial flows to Damascus3.
• Israel plans major ground operation in Gaza, rejecting ceasefire; humanitarian concerns rise4.
• Zelenskyy and Putin to meet in Turkey for Ukraine ceasefire talks; France and U.S. threaten 500% tariffs on Russian oil if talks fail516.
• U.S. imposes new sanctions on Iranian nuclear researchers and oil exporters to China; Iran proposes regional uranium enrichment consortium with Saudi Arabia and UAE67.
• South Korea’s KDI halves 2025 GDP forecast to 0.8% due to U.S. tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum8.
• EU to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural imports from June 6, risking €3.5B in annual Ukrainian revenue9.
• Tesla to resume importing Chinese components after U.S.-China tariff truce, restarting U.S. Cybercab and Semi production12.
• Colombia joins China’s Belt and Road Initiative, expanding infrastructure and trade ties11.
• Severe frosts damage Russian crops; PNAS study warns of global crop yield declines and climate-related risks15.
• UK-US trade deal cuts tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars, but includes supply chain restrictions targeting China; Beijing objects10.
• Sweden proposes EU membership in CPTPP to counter U.S. tariffs; EU considers trade diversification17.

Commentary

Geopolitical and trade realignments are driving market focus. The U.S. is easing AI chip export restrictions, but the ongoing clampdown on Huawei and new supply chain guidance underscore persistent tech sector bifurcation1. The Gulf is emerging as a key AI and semiconductor demand center: Saudi Arabia’s $600B investment pact, record arms deal, and Humain’s Nvidia -driven data center project—alongside a potential UAE mega-purchase of Nvidia chips—are boosting U.S. tech and defense equities21314. Nvidia and AMD remain in the spotlight, with further upside possible as Gulf digital infrastructure spending accelerates1314.

Middle East policy shifts are significant. The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria could eventually re-open trade and capital flows, though near-term risks remain high given regional instability3. Israel’s planned escalation in Gaza and the lack of ceasefire progress keep geopolitical risk elevated4. Meanwhile, Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks in Turkey are a key watch; failure could trigger severe new sanctions, including a proposed 500% tariff on Russian oil, with direct implications for energy markets and European inflation516.

Trade tensions remain a drag on Asia and Europe. South Korea’s sharp GDP downgrade reflects the impact of U.S. tariffs on key exports8. The EU’s reimposition of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods will hit Kyiv’s revenue and may add to volatility in agri-commodities9. The UK-US trade deal offers targeted relief but complicates London’s China relations, while Sweden’s push for EU CPTPP membership signals broader attempts to hedge against U.S. protectionism1017. Tesla ’s resumption of Chinese component imports after a tariff truce points to selective easing in U.S.-China trade, but policy unpredictability persists12.

Climate and supply shocks are also in focus. Russian crop losses and a PNAS report highlighting the risk of global yield declines and catastrophic cooling scenarios may pressure global food prices and agri-equities15. Colombia’s Belt and Road accession and China’s new satellite launches reinforce Beijing’s global infrastructure and tech ambitions, with potential implications for emerging market capital flows1118.

Traders should monitor U.S. chip and defense stocks, energy and agricultural commodities, and FX in trade-exposed economies (KRW, UAH)89. Diplomatic outcomes in Turkey and the Middle East, as well as evolving U.S.-China and U.S.-EU trade policies, are likely to drive risk sentiment and cross-asset volatility in the near term.