TL;DR

Iran escalates nuclear tensions; US Senate passes $4.5T Trump bill; Trump threatens Japan tariffs.

Highlights

• US intelligence says Iran loaded naval mines after Israeli strikes; Strait of Hormuz remains open, but tensions rise1.
• Iran halts cooperation with the IAEA, reducing nuclear oversight and escalating regional risks2.
• US withholds some promised arms to Ukraine due to low Pentagon stockpiles, reflecting a shift in defense priorities3.
• Trump claims Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire; Hamas response pending4.
• Trump threatens tariffs up to 35% on Japanese goods; Nikkei drops over 500 points before partial recovery5.
• US Senate passes Trump’s $4.5T tax-cut and spending bill by one vote; deficit projected to widen by $3.3T8.
• Trump escalates feud with Elon Musk, threatening deportation and scrutiny of Musk-linked federal contracts; Tesla shares fall 5%6.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts Fed rate cut by September, citing lack of tariff-driven inflation7.
• Gold holds above $3,330/oz, supported by Fed-cut expectations and deficit concerns14.
• FTC opens in-depth antitrust review of SoftBank’s $6.5B Ampere deal, delaying semiconductor M&A10.
• Tesla China sales rise 0.8% YoY in June, ending an eight-month slide; Q2 deliveries still down 6.8%11.
• Quad nations (US, Japan, Australia, India) launch critical minerals initiative to diversify supply chains away from China13.

Commentary

Middle East risk is back in focus after US reports that Iran loaded naval mines following Israeli strikes, though no deployment has occurred and oil markets remain stable for now1. However, Iran’s immediate suspension of IAEA cooperation further clouds the outlook, removing a key layer of nuclear oversight2. Traders should monitor for any escalation that could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and impact energy and shipping names.

In Washington, the Senate’s narrow passage of Trump’s $4.5T tax-cut and spending package sets up a final House vote, with the bill projected to widen the deficit by $3.3T over ten years8. The move has reinforced safe-haven flows into gold , which is holding above $3,330/oz14, and is weighing on the dollar. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s explicit call for a Fed rate cut by September adds to dovish expectations7, but upcoming labor data will be key for timing.

Trade tensions are front and center as Trump’s tariff threats against Japan hit the Nikkei and raise the risk of further disruption to global supply chains, particularly in autos and manufacturing5. Meanwhile, the launch of the Quad minerals initiative signals a push to reduce reliance on China for critical materials, with potential implications for US mining and tech supply chains13.

On the corporate front, Tesla ’s modest China sales rebound offers a short-term boost, but Q2 deliveries remain weak amid tough competition11. The FTC’s in-depth review of SoftBank’s Ampere acquisition signals heightened regulatory scrutiny in semiconductor M&A10. The Musk-Trump dispute injects additional headline risk for Tesla and other Musk-linked firms, especially those dependent on federal contracts or policy support6.