TL;DR

OPEC+ extends oil cuts, U.S. halts chip/jet tech exports to China, Trade Court strikes down Trump tariffs.

Highlights

• OPEC+ extends 3.6 million bpd oil production cuts through end-2026; subgroup to decide on a 411,000 bpd July hike. Brent and WTI rise 1.
• Libya’s eastern government threatens force majeure on oil exports after armed group incident at NOC HQ, raising supply risk 2.
• Trump administration halts U.S. chip design software and jet engine tech exports to China, directly impacting COMAC’s C919 and U.S. EDA firms; Cadence and Synopsys shares fall 34.
• U.S. Trade Court strikes down Trump’s global tariffs (10%–145%), including China/Canada/Mexico duties; White House appeals 5.
• China tightens rare earth export controls, threatening European and Indian manufacturing; U.S. and Brazil expand critical minerals partnership 9.
• Bank of Korea cuts rate to 2.50%, halves 2025 GDP forecast to 0.8%, signals further easing amid export and tariff headwinds 10.
• Nvidia posts $44B revenue, $18.8B profit; $4.5B China-related charge but shares rise on strong AI demand and global expansion 11.
• China deploys H-6 bombers to South China Sea, increases naval activity; Germany and Ukraine to co-produce long-range weapons; Israel strikes Yemen after missile attacks on Tel Aviv 6719.
• Iran may pause uranium enrichment for one year if U.S. releases $6B and recognizes civilian use rights 15.
• Russia approves non-deliverable crypto derivatives for qualified investors; Pakistan to establish strategic Bitcoin reserve and begin mining 1213.
• UK and US to discuss 25% tariffs at G7; UK-India FTA to add £25.5B to annual trade, cut tariffs on key exports 14.
• NTT Docomo to acquire 65.81% of SBI Sumishin Net Bank for ¥233.6B, expanding into fintech 18.

Commentary

Energy markets remain sensitive as OPEC+ extends deep production cuts through 2026, helping to stabilize prices 1. The potential for a July output hike and possible Libyan export disruptions introduce near-term volatility 12. Monitor Brent and WTI for further upside if supply risks materialize, especially as Libya’s situation evolves 2.

Tech and industrial sectors face renewed U.S.-China tensions. The Trump administration’s halt on chip design software and jet engine exports to China directly affects both U.S. suppliers (Cadence , Synopsys ) and Chinese manufacturers (COMAC), with immediate equity market impact 34. China’s rare earth export controls further threaten global supply chains, putting European and Indian manufacturing at risk and prompting the U.S. to deepen alternative mineral partnerships 9.

The U.S. Trade Court’s ruling against Trump-era tariffs introduces uncertainty for global trade policy and ongoing negotiations with China, Canada, Mexico, and the UK 5. If the decision stands, it could reshape tariff structures and impact cross-border flows. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea’s rate cut and growth downgrade reflect export headwinds and regional softness, with further easing likely if conditions deteriorate 10.

Nvidia ’s strong results underscore persistent AI demand, offsetting some China-related losses 11. However, sector performance remains tied to evolving U.S.-China policy and supply chain developments 3411. In FX and rates, expect pressure on the won and other export-driven currencies, with policy divergence and trade headlines driving volatility 10.

Geopolitical risk is elevated: China’s assertive military moves in the South China Sea 6, Germany-Ukraine weapons cooperation 7, and Middle East escalations (Israel-Yemen 19, Iran nuclear talks 15) all warrant close attention for potential spillover into commodities and defense sectors. Crypto markets see incremental institutionalization with Russia’s new derivatives 12 and Pakistan’s planned Bitcoin reserve 13.