TL;DR

Oil slides on new tariffs; S&P 500 target raised amid record buybacks; Bitcoin nears record high.

Highlights

• Oil extends losses; Brent and WTI on track for steepest weekly drop since June as Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Indian imports and warns of secondary sanctions on Chinese tankers moving Russian crude 1.
• Citigroup raises S&P 500 year-end target to 6,600 citing tax-cut prospects 13; BofA survey finds 91% of managers call U.S. stocks overvalued, with record-low cash allocations 14.
• U.S. companies announce record $166B in July buybacks, led by Apple , Alphabet, and major banks 8.
• Bitcoin nears record $123,000; Ether tops $4,300 as crypto market cap surpasses $4T. BlackRock adds $632M in BTC and ETH; Coinbase and miners rise pre-market 412.
• Micron raises Q4 outlook on stronger DRAM pricing; shares up 4–5% pre-market 5.
• Ørsted launches $9.4B rights issue after U.S. market setbacks; shares fall up to 26% 6.
• Iron ore up 1.6% as China orders Tangshan mill shutdowns; copper rallies on Chinese restocking 10.
• Hertz, AMC, and Sphere beat Q2 estimates; Hertz posts first positive adjusted EBITDA in nearly two years 15.
• Trump presses China to quadruple U.S. soybean purchases as trade truce nears expiry; weak Chinese demand weighs on futures 3.
• Trump Media updates SEC filing for spot Bitcoin ETF; eyes 2025 launch pending SEC approval 7.
• Rumble in advanced talks to acquire Germany’s Northern Data for $1.17B in stock, expanding into AI/cloud 16.
• North Korea threatens counteraction over U.S.–South Korea drills, but both Koreas signal some thaw 9.

Commentary

Energy markets remain under pressure as new U.S. tariffs on Indian imports and the threat of secondary sanctions on Chinese tankers moving Russian crude weigh on oil prices 1. Brent and WTI are both heading for their sharpest weekly declines since June, with OPEC+ set to end major production curbs next month 1. The move squeezes Indian refiners and raises concerns about global energy demand, but analysts expect only limited disruption to Russian flows 1.

U.S. equities are supported by a mix of record corporate buybacks and upbeat earnings, but caution is warranted. Citigroup’s S&P 500 target upgrade to 6,600 reflects optimism around potential tax cuts 13, yet the latest BofA survey shows a record 91% of fund managers see U.S. stocks as overvalued, and cash allocations have dropped to new lows 14. The rally remains concentrated in tech and financials, with buybacks from Apple , Alphabet, and big banks driving flows 8.

Crypto continues to attract institutional interest. Bitcoin is within 1% of its all-time high, Ether is at multi-year highs, and BlackRock’s latest $632M allocation underscores growing mainstream adoption 412. Coinbase and other crypto-exposed equities are trading higher pre-market 4. The upcoming U.S. CPI data will be closely watched for confirmation of Fed policy direction, with a soft print likely to support both equities and digital assets 4.

In other sectors, Micron ’s raised outlook on DRAM pricing highlights a rebound in memory chips 5, while industrial metals like iron ore and copper are getting a lift from Chinese restocking and supply constraints 10. Corporate deal activity is active, with Rumble pursuing a $1.17B AI/cloud acquisition 16 and Western Union acquiring Intermex to expand in Latin America 17. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist, with North Korea issuing new threats 9 and U.S.–China trade tensions in focus as Trump presses Beijing on soybean purchases 3.

Traders should monitor oil price action, U.S.–China/India trade headlines, and tomorrow’s CPI report for direction. Positioning remains stretched and volatility could pick up if macro or geopolitical risks escalate.