TL;DR

US escalates tariffs on EU, India, Brazil; Russia weighs Ukraine air truce; SEC eases crypto staking rules.

Highlights

• • Nvidia denied Chinese claims of backdoors in its AI chips and warned the US against mandated “kill switches,” citing security and trust risks 1.
• • Trump threatened a 35% tariff on EU goods 4, new tariffs on Indian exports over Russian oil imports 5, and confirmed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports effective this week 6.
• • Brazil will file a WTO complaint and offer domestic aid to offset US tariffs; Embraer pledges $1B US investment 6.
• • Russia is considering an “air truce” over Ukraine to avoid US secondary sanctions, as Trump sets an August 8 deadline and threatens penalties on Russian oil buyers 2.
• • Sweden, Denmark, and Norway pledged $500M for US arms to Ukraine under a new NATO procurement scheme 18.
• • Russia slightly exceeded its OPEC+ oil cap in July; oil and gas revenues rebounded, but oil tax receipts fell 33% YoY 8.
• • Iraq will restart crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline this week; BP to begin Kirkuk field work 7.
• • The ECB warned US tariffs may shift Chinese exports to Europe, threatening EU industrial jobs 19.
• • China is piloting renminbi stablecoins in Hong Kong to internationalize the RMB and counter capital outflows 9.
• • The SEC clarified most liquid staking tokens are not securities, easing regulatory risk for Ethereum and Solana staking products 10.
• • Indonesia is exploring adding Bitcoin to its national reserves; SBI Holdings applied for Japan’s first spot Bitcoin and XRP ETFs 1120.
• • The Reserve Bank of India held rates at 5.5%, cut its FY26 inflation outlook, and signaled room for further easing 12.

Commentary

Trade tensions remain front and center, with the US escalating tariff threats toward the EU 4, India 5, and Brazil 6. The immediate impact is downside risk for EM and export-heavy equities, as well as potential currency volatility. Brazil’s planned WTO action and domestic aid signal a willingness to absorb near-term shocks, but fiscal risks could weigh on local assets 6. The ECB’s warning on Chinese export diversion highlights secondary effects for Europe’s manufacturing sector, as Chinese goods seek new markets amid US tariffs 19.

In energy, Russia’s modest OPEC+ overproduction and revenue rebound are tempered by the risk of new US secondary sanctions tied to Ukraine 82. The possible Russian “air truce” and the restart of Iraq’s Ceyhan pipeline may add some supply stability, but the market remains sensitive to any moves around Trump’s August 8 deadline 27. European gas prices continue to ease on high storage, muting the near-term impact of potential new sanctions 17.

Digital assets are seeing regulatory and institutional tailwinds: the SEC’s guidance on liquid staking removes a key barrier for Ethereum-based products, while Indonesia’s reserve deliberations and Japan’s ETF applications point to growing sovereign and institutional adoption in Asia 101120. China’s stablecoin pilots are another step in RMB internationalization, though regulatory rollout remains cautious 9.

India’s central bank held rates steady and trimmed its inflation outlook, supporting the rupee and keeping policy flexible amid external trade risks 12. Meanwhile, Nvidia ’s firm stance against both US and Chinese regulatory demands underscores the operational challenges for global tech firms navigating divergent policy environments 1.

Traders should monitor US trade actions, Russia’s response to sanctions threats, and regulatory developments in digital assets and AI. Cross-asset volatility is likely around key policy deadlines and new tariff implementations.