TL;DR

S&P 500 hits 6,500; Nvidia slips on China chip woes; Trump sets new small-package import duties.

Highlights

• S&P 500 closed above 6,500 for the first time; Dow also hit a record, driven by a Q2 GDP revision to 3.3% and lower jobless claims 11.
• Nvidia shares slipped ~2% after confirming no H20 AI chip orders from China; ongoing export uncertainty persists despite strong revenue growth 1.
• Dell raised its FY26 revenue outlook to $109B on AI server demand but issued soft Q3 profit guidance; shares fell ~5% after hours 3.
• HP Inc. and Autodesk beat earnings estimates on AI-driven demand; Best Buy posted solid sales but maintained a cautious outlook due to tariffs 3.
• Ulta Beauty beat Q2 estimates, raised FY25 outlook, and shares rose 6% on continued strong beauty demand 5.
• Affirm Holdings jumped 10% after a strong EPS beat and 43% GMV growth, signaling ongoing BNPL momentum 6.
• Trump administration announced $80–$200 flat duties on all incoming small packages for six months, with product-specific tariffs to follow 2.
• Nvidia began talks with the White House on Blackwell chip export approvals to China; process remains at an early stage 4.
• IREN Limited secured Nvidia partner status, announced a major AI cloud expansion to 10,900 GPUs by end-2025, and reported record revenue 12.
• 21Shares filed for a staked Sei token ETF with the SEC, adding to the growing US crypto ETF pipeline 7.
• CDC leadership turmoil escalated with the ouster of Director Monarez, staff walkouts, and senior resignations 89.
• Country Eggs LLC expanded its recall after a Salmonella outbreak sickened at least 95 people in 14 states 10.

Commentary

US equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,500 for the first time, supported by stronger Q2 GDP data and a continued decline in jobless claims. These macro signals reinforced the market’s view of a resilient US economy, helping offset some sector-specific headwinds and keeping volatility low 11.

AI hardware and infrastructure remain a central market theme. Nvidia ’s revenue growth and sector-wide AI demand (as seen in Dell , HP , and Autodesk results) continue to drive tech leadership, but China export restrictions are a clear overhang. Nvidia ’s lack of H20 chip sales to China 1 and the slow progress on Blackwell export approvals 4 highlight ongoing regulatory risk. Dell ’s upbeat annual outlook was overshadowed by cautious profit guidance, suggesting margin pressures as AI hardware demand scales 3.

Consumer and retail results were mixed. Ulta Beauty ’s strong quarter and raised outlook point to resilient discretionary spending in select categories 5, while Best Buy ’s flat guidance and tariff concerns underscore persistent margin risks from shifting trade policy 3. The Trump administration’s move to impose flat duties on all small-package imports—transitioning to product-specific tariffs—signals further tightening of US trade policy, with potential implications for retail supply chains, inflation, and consumer sentiment 2.

Fintech and crypto activity remains robust. Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat GMV guidance indicate continued demand for alternative financing 6. IREN ’s expansion into Nvidia -powered AI cloud services reflects the ongoing convergence of crypto infrastructure and high-performance computing 12. The 21Shares staked Sei ETF filing adds to the growing queue of digital asset products seeking SEC approval, signaling persistent institutional interest in crypto exposure 7.

Healthcare and regulatory risk are in focus following leadership upheaval at the CDC, which could have implications for health sector sentiment and policy oversight 89. Traders should watch Friday’s PCE inflation data for clues on the Fed’s next move, monitor US-China tech policy developments, and remain alert to any fallout from CDC instability.