TL;DR

U.S.-China slash tariffs, S&P 500 surges; Ukraine-Russia, India-Pakistan ceasefires; global debt hits $324T.

Highlights

• Trump announces China will "fully open" markets to U.S. businesses; both sides cut tariffs sharply (U.S. from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%); S&P 500 jumps 2.9% to 5,822 1.
• China lifts ban on Boeing deliveries post-trade truce; ~50 aircraft to be delivered in 2025 2.
• EU considers capital controls and tariffs to bypass Hungary’s veto on €200B Russia sanctions 3; plans to ban 25 Russian oil tankers from Baltic/North Seas over environmental risks 4.
• Zelensky and Putin scheduled for direct ceasefire talks in Istanbul on May 15; Trump may attend 5.
• Trump ends Operation Rough Rider against Houthis after $1B in costs and military setbacks; U.S. secures Red Sea ceasefire for American ships 6.
• Trump brokers ceasefire between India and Pakistan, leveraging U.S. trade incentives to avert escalation 7.
• India proposes retaliatory tariffs on 29 U.S. products amid steel/aluminum dispute, affecting $7.6B in trade 8.
• Honda forecasts FY2026 net profit to drop 70% on U.S. tariffs and yen strength; delays Canadian EV factory 10.
• Global debt rises $7.5T in Q1 2025 to a record $324T; U.S. mortgage debt exceeds $12.6T 15.
• Fitch upgrades Argentina’s debt to CCC+ after $20B IMF deal; inflation seen below 2%; Buenos Aires stocks rise 16.
• Robinhood acquires WonderFi for C$250M to expand crypto presence in Canada 18.
• SoftBank posts first annual profit in four years (¥1.15T), driven by T-Mobile share sales and AI investments 20.

Commentary

Risk sentiment has improved markedly following the U.S.-China trade reset. The mutual reduction in tariffs and China’s pledge to open its markets to U.S. businesses have triggered a broad rally in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 up nearly 3% 1. Exporters, notably Boeing , stand to benefit immediately as China resumes aircraft deliveries 2. This trade thaw should support cyclicals and industrials globally, while also reducing pressure on supply chains 12.

Geopolitical tensions are moderating across several regions. Direct ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, with possible U.S. involvement, and the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan both reduce tail risks for commodities and EM assets 57. However, the EU’s efforts to maintain Russia sanctions—potentially via capital controls and new tariffs—and the ban on Russian tankers could keep volatility elevated in European energy and shipping markets 34.

Macro headwinds persist. Global debt has reached a new record, led by emerging markets and the U.S. mortgage sector, underscoring ongoing risks for fixed income and FX, especially if rates rise further 15. Honda ’s profit warning highlights the real impact of tariffs and currency moves on global manufacturers, with potential spillovers for auto sector equities and the yen 10.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s credit upgrade and successful IMF deal may draw selective EM inflows, but structural challenges remain 16. In digital assets, Robinhood ’s WonderFi acquisition signals continued consolidation and regulatory progress in the Canadian crypto market 18. SoftBank’s return to profit, driven by asset sales and AI exposure, reinforces the market’s focus on technology and capital allocation 20.