Highlights

• U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, beating expectations; unemployment steady at 4.2%, wage growth cooled, and labor force participation rose 1.
• Goldman Sachs and Barclays push forecast for Fed's first rate cut to July after strong payrolls data 9.
• Saudi Arabia signals acceptance of lower oil prices; OPEC+ to discuss a 400,000 bpd output hike for June as crude hits multi-year lows (Brent ~$62) 2.
• Shell , Chevron , and Exxon report Q1 profit declines on lower oil prices but maintain or adjust buyback plans; Chevron to pare buybacks, Shell and Exxon stay the course 14.
• DOJ seeks breakup of Google ’s ad tech business for antitrust; trial set for September 3.
• Jeff Bezos to sell up to 25 million Amazon shares (~$4.8B) by May 2026 under a pre-set plan, following a 22% drop in Amazon stock from February highs 4.
• Nvidia stock rises 2.5% as it tweaks AI chips for China to comply with U.S. export bans, aiming to retain Chinese business 6.
• Palantir stock nears all-time high after 50%+ gain in April, ahead of Monday’s earnings 20.
• Take-Two shares drop 16% after ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ delayed to May 2026 5.
• Taiwan dollar surges 4% in its biggest one-day move since 1988, raising investor exposure concerns; Asian FX broadly firmer on easing trade tensions 11.
• China quietly exempts $40B of U.S. imports from tariffs and mulls fentanyl export curbs to restart trade talks; U.S. reciprocates on some electronics 108.
• Brown University allocates 2% of its endowment to Bitcoin ETF; Senator Lummis says Trump supports bill for U.S. to buy 1 million Bitcoin 1213.
• Apple ordered to allow crypto/NFT purchases without App Store fees; Epic Games to return Fortnite to App Store 15.
• McDonald’s U.S. sales see steepest drop since pandemic, but profits beat; low- and middle-income consumer traffic sharply lower 19.
• Venmo and Zelle experience outages due to Fiserv issue, causing payment disruptions for thousands of users 18.
• Trump FY2026 budget seeks record $1.01T for defense, slashes $163B from domestic programs; defense spending at all-time high 16.

Commentary

Today’s session is defined by a strong U.S. jobs report, with payrolls beating consensus and unemployment steady, but wage growth moderating 1. This “Goldilocks” labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and Barclays to push back their Fed rate cut expectations to July, reinforcing the theme of “higher for longer” in U.S. rates 9. Equities may see some late-session volatility as traders recalibrate rate cut bets, with tech and growth names most sensitive to shifting rate expectations.

Commodities are under pressure as Saudi Arabia signals tolerance for lower oil prices and OPEC+ weighs another output hike 2. Brent and WTI are at multi-year lows, squeezing energy sector margins. While Shell and Exxon are holding firm on buybacks, Chevron ’s more cautious stance underscores the sector’s uncertainty 14. Lower oil prices could provide a tailwind for transport and consumer sectors but weigh on energy equities and credit spreads.

In tech, regulatory and strategic headlines are front and center. The DOJ’s push to break up Google ’s ad tech business adds a fresh antitrust overhang for Alphabet 3, while Apple faces a court order to allow crypto and NFT purchases outside its walled garden—potentially opening new revenue streams for developers and crypto platforms 15. Nvidia ’s rally on news of China-specific AI chips shows the market’s appetite for companies that can adapt to geopolitical headwinds 6. Meanwhile, Amazon faces technical selling pressure as Jeff Bezos discloses a major planned share sale 4.

Currency markets are seeing rare volatility, with the Taiwan dollar’s historic surge raising risk for investors with unhedged exposure 11. Asian FX broadly benefits from signs of thawing U.S.-China trade tensions, as China exempts a quarter of U.S. imports from tariffs 10 and mulls fentanyl export curbs as a goodwill gesture 8. Watch for further moves in the dollar index and Asian FX pairs as trade headlines evolve.

Crypto remains in focus as institutional adoption accelerates—Brown University’s Bitcoin ETF allocation 12 and Senator Lummis’s bill for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve both stoke bullish sentiment 13. Apple ’s forced opening to crypto payments and Epic’s return to the App Store could further mainstream digital assets 15. Palantir ’s momentum ahead of earnings 20 and the sharp sell-off in Take-Two after the GTA VI delay 5 highlight the ongoing bifurcation in tech. Into the close, watch for positioning ahead of Monday’s key earnings and any late-breaking macro headlines, especially around OPEC+ and U.S.-China trade.