TL;DR

U.S.-China trade deal details due; Trump to slash drug prices; recession signals drive equity outflows.

Highlights

• U.S. and China reach agreement in Geneva to reduce the U.S. trade deficit; tariff details expected Monday1.
• President Trump to sign executive order capping U.S. drug prices at lowest global levels, targeting up to 80% cost reduction2.
• U.S. economic data deteriorates: job openings down 288,000, Q1 GDP contracts 0.3%, CEO confidence at 13-year low816.
• U.S. equity funds see $9.3B in outflows; investors shift to gold , short-term Treasuries, and low-volatility stocks9.
• Bitcoin nears $105,000 on U.S.-China trade optimism; BlackRock , Goldman , and Vanguard increase crypto exposure; Ethereum up 44% in 3 days4513.
• Coinbase acquires Deribit for $2.9B, expanding crypto derivatives footprint; retail and institutional crypto flows rise6.
• Tesla closes above 200-day moving average, shares up over 5% to $325 pre-market7.
• Saudi Aramco Q1 profit falls 4.6% to $26B, cuts dividend; OPEC+ to raise output in June amid demand uncertainty11.
• China’s CPI falls 0.1% YoY, PPI down 2.7%; Beijing adds stimulus as deflation persists and U.S. tariffs weigh15.
• Eli Lilly ’s Zepbound outperforms Novo Nordisk ’s Wegovy in Phase 3b weight-loss trial17.
• PJM warns of possible U.S. summer power shortages; Spain/Portugal blackout highlights grid risk; U.S. halts Mexican cattle imports due to screwworm1412.
• European leaders and Zelenskyy demand Ukraine ceasefire, threaten Russia with new sanctions including Nord Stream 2 block3.

Commentary

Traders enter Monday with a focus on U.S.-China trade relations, as a new deal aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit is set for further detail1. While specifics on tariffs remain unclear, the agreement signals a potential easing of tensions, which has already buoyed risk sentiment—particularly in crypto, where Bitcoin is trading near record highs and institutional inflows remain strong413. Equities, especially in tech and cyclicals, may see early support, but underlying caution persists.

U.S. macro data continues to show signs of stress: job openings have fallen sharply, Q1 GDP contracted, and CEO confidence is at its lowest since 2012816. Equity funds are experiencing significant outflows, with investors rotating into defensive assets like gold and short-term Treasuries9. This defensive posture is reinforced by persistent concerns over recession, weak manufacturing data, and rising global debt levels816. Fixed income markets could see continued demand, potentially flattening the yield curve further.

In sector news, Tesla ’s technical breakout above its 200-day moving average may draw momentum traders7, while the healthcare sector will be closely watched after President Trump’s executive order on drug pricing2 and Eli Lilly ’s strong weight-loss drug trial results versus Novo Nordisk 17. The energy complex remains under pressure following Saudi Aramco ’s profit decline and dividend cut, with OPEC+ planning to increase output despite uncertain demand11. China’s ongoing deflation and new stimulus measures highlight continued global demand risks and may impact industrials and EM assets15.

Crypto markets are in focus with BlackRock , Goldman Sachs , and Vanguard all increasing Bitcoin exposure13, and Coinbase expanding into derivatives with the Deribit acquisition6. Ethereum ’s surge, driven by institutional buying and ETF speculation, could spill over into related equities5. Infrastructure and utilities may see volatility as PJM warns of potential summer power shortages14, and the U.S. halts Mexican cattle imports due to disease concerns12.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated with European leaders demanding a Ukraine ceasefire and threatening new sanctions on Russia, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East3. Traders should monitor for updates on U.S.-China trade deal specifics1, U.S. drug pricing policy2, and any major geopolitical developments that could drive volatility across asset classes.