TL;DR

Oil surges on Israel-Iran conflict; gold nears record; SNB to cut rates; Bitcoin tops $107K.

Highlights

• Oil prices jumped 5.5% as Israel-Iran missile exchanges raised concerns over Strait of Hormuz supply risks; WTI up 12% week-on-week 1.
• UK maritime authorities report increased GPS/AIS disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, though oil/LNG flows remain normal 6.
• Gold approaches record highs on Middle East tensions; Japanese and Indian gold prices hit new peaks 7.
• Israel claims destruction of 120 Iranian missile launchers; Iran fires missiles at Israel, damaging the US Embassy branch in Tel Aviv (no casualties) 52.
• Iran’s parliament drafts bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, increasing nuclear escalation risks 4.
• SIPRI warns of a renewed global nuclear arms race, with China’s warhead count up 20% to 600 18.
• Swiss National Bank expected to cut policy rate to zero on June 19, with negative rates possible later; ECB seen likely to ease in 2025 8.
• China’s May retail sales beat forecasts (+6.4% YoY), but property and industrial data remain weak 9.
• Bitcoin surpasses $107,000 as crypto funds see $1.9B in weekly inflows; Japanese corporates increase BTC holdings 1314.
• Amazon and Roku integrate CTV ad inventories, granting advertisers access to 80% of US connected-TV households; Roku shares up pre-market 16.
• Supernus to acquire Sage Therapeutics for up to $795M ($12/share, 79% premium); Sage shares surge pre-market 15.
• Trump orders intensified ICE deportation raids in Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, prompting local pushback 19.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk is front and center as the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, driving a sharp 5.5% rally in oil prices and pushing WTI up 12% over the past week 1. While physical supply remains uninterrupted, electronic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and heightened military activity are increasing operational risks for global energy flows 6. This is likely to keep energy equities bid and could feed into renewed inflation concerns, with potential knock-on effects for US rates and risk assets.

Gold is benefiting from safe-haven demand, nearing record highs as investors seek protection from geopolitical uncertainty and possible inflation 7. The risk of further escalation is underscored by Iran’s potential withdrawal from the NPT 4 and SIPRI’s warning on global nuclear arms build-up 18, adding a layer of uncertainty to the macro backdrop.

Central banks remain in focus. The SNB is expected to cut rates to zero this week, with negative rates possible later in the year, while the ECB is viewed as likely to ease again in 2025 8. This policy divergence, combined with inflation risk from higher energy prices, could drive volatility in FX markets and US yields.

In equities, deal activity is notable: Supernus’s acquisition of Sage at a significant premium 15 and the Amazon -Roku CTV ad integration (covering 80% of US households) 16 are likely to drive pre-market moves in the healthcare and media sectors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ’s breakout above $107,000, supported by strong fund inflows 14 and corporate accumulation in Japan 12, signals ongoing momentum in digital assets 13.

US domestic policy is also in play, with President Trump ordering intensified ICE raids in major cities, potentially impacting sentiment in sectors exposed to labor or urban demand 19. China’s mixed macro data may limit upside for EM and commodity-linked names, despite the retail sales beat 9.