TL;DR

Trump eases Fed chair concerns; banks beat Q2; crypto inflows surge as regulation advances.

Highlights

• Trump floated the idea of firing Fed Chair Powell but later called it "highly unlikely," calming earlier market concerns 12.
• BNY Mellon , Goldman Sachs , and Morgan Stanley beat Q2 estimates on strong trading and dealmaking; BNY Mellon raised expense guidance 6.
• US industrial production rose 0.3% in June, above expectations, with manufacturing output slightly positive 8.
• US House advanced three crypto bills, setting up votes on digital asset regulation and an anti-CBDC measure 3.
• Bank of America plans a US dollar stablecoin, joining other major banks amid ongoing Congressional debate 4.
• Tether minted $2B USDT, pushing supply above $160B; Circle also expanded USDC as crypto ETF inflows continue 5.
• US-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded ninth and eighth consecutive days of inflows, respectively 19.
• EIA reported a US crude draw but large gasoline and distillate builds; product demand declined 7.
• USTR Greer warned of US manufacturing erosion, citing a 55% China tariff rate; Canada imposed new 25% duty on Chinese steel 1415.
• FCC moved to bar Chinese equipment from US submarine cables, increasing scrutiny on tech supply chains 11.
• Scale AI cut 14% of staff after Meta ’s $14.3B investment, citing overexpansion and shifting client demand 17.
• OpenAI to add a checkout feature to ChatGPT, aiming for new revenue streams beyond subscriptions 20.
• Israel struck Syrian defense targets; US announced a deal to end Syria conflict could take effect tonight 910.

Commentary

Markets stabilized after President Trump clarified he is unlikely to remove Fed Chair Powell, reversing earlier volatility sparked by reports of a possible dismissal 12. While legal and political risks around Fed independence remain a background concern, the immediate market impact has faded for now. Equities and Treasuries both saw reduced volatility following the clarification 2.

Q2 earnings from major US banks were a positive surprise, with BNY Mellon , Goldman Sachs , and Morgan Stanley all exceeding expectations thanks to strong trading and a rebound in deal activity. However, BNY Mellon's upward revision to expense guidance signals ongoing cost pressures 6. Combined with a better-than-expected 0.3% rise in industrial production 8, these data points suggest underlying resilience in the US economy, even as trade policy uncertainty and tariffs remain headwinds 1416.

Crypto markets remain in focus as the House advanced three key digital asset bills 3 and Bank of America signaled stablecoin plans 4. Tether’s $2B USDT mint and ongoing inflows into US-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs highlight persistent institutional demand and growing regulatory momentum 519. Traders should watch for Congressional votes and further developments from major banks in the digital asset space 34.

In commodities, the EIA reported a crude inventory draw offset by significant gasoline and distillate builds, with demand indicators softening 7. This may weigh on energy equities and oil prices into the close. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions persist, with new Canadian tariffs on Chinese steel 15 and the FCC moving to restrict Chinese tech in US submarine cables—both reinforcing the ongoing decoupling trend in supply chains 11.

Geopolitical risk remains present with Israeli strikes in Syria 9, but the US now claims a deal to end the conflict could take effect tonight 10. Any confirmation of de-escalation may support risk sentiment, while renewed escalation could trigger a late-session safe-haven bid 910.