Highlights

• Microsoft and Meta both beat quarterly earnings estimates; Meta lifts 2025 AI capex guidance to as much as $72B, fueling strong after-hours gains (MSFT +6-7%, META +5%) 2.
• Qualcomm tops Q2 expectations but issues softer Q3 revenue guidance, triggering a >4% after-hours stock drop 5.
• Robinhood beats Q1 estimates, driven by a surge in crypto revenue and record net deposits; stock slips 2.2% post-market 8.
• Apple ordered by federal judge to immediately halt 27% fee on external App Store purchases after being found in contempt in Epic Games case; potential criminal probe referred to DOJ 3.
• S&P 500 closes April down just 0.76% after rebounding from an 11.2% mid-month plunge; tech sector (XLK ) rebounds 22% in 16 trading days 6.
• Amazon announces $4B investment to triple rural delivery capacity, add 200+ delivery stations, and create 100,000 jobs by 2026 7.
• U.S. Senate deadlocks 49–49 on ending Trump-era tariffs, leaving duties in place amid economic contraction signals 1.
• President Trump proposes 15% corporate tax rate for U.S. manufacturers and zero tariffs for new domestic factories 11.
• US and Ukraine sign 50/50 reconstruction fund deal granting U.S. firms first refusal on Ukrainian mineral and energy projects 4.
• House votes to repeal Biden-era EV mandates, with Trump’s backing, aiming to preserve consumer choice and counter reliance on Chinese minerals 10.
• North Carolina House passes bill allowing up to 5% of state funds to be invested in Bitcoin , joining a growing trend among U.S. states 9.
• eBay beats Q1 earnings and revenue expectations, guides Q2 in line with consensus 15.
• EU to present trade proposals to U.S. next week ahead of May 19 summit, signaling potential escalation or resolution of transatlantic trade tensions 12.
• Pemex posts $2.13B Q1 loss amid FX headwinds, declining output, and rising debt 14.

Commentary

After a volatile April, U.S. equities closed the month with a remarkable recovery, led by a tech sector resurgence that saw names like Microsoft and Meta deliver robust earnings and bullish AI investment guidance 2. The after-hours rally in these mega-cap techs will likely provide a tailwind for the broader market into May, especially as the S&P 500 managed to erase nearly all of its mid-month losses 6. However, Qualcomm ’s cautious Q3 outlook and the modest pullback in Robinhood despite strong crypto-driven results highlight that not all growth stories are immune to macro headwinds and shifting investor sentiment 58.

Policy developments are adding layers of complexity to the outlook. The Senate’s failure to repeal Trump-era tariffs keeps trade uncertainty elevated 1, particularly as the EU prepares to present new proposals and possible retaliatory measures ahead of the May 19 summit 12. President Trump’s push for a 15% corporate tax rate for U.S. manufacturing and zero tariffs on new domestic factories signals a renewed focus on industrial policy and supply chain reshoring, which could benefit domestic manufacturers but further strain global trade relations 11. Meanwhile, the House’s move to roll back Biden-era EV mandates underscores a political pivot toward traditional autos and away from aggressive electrification, with implications for automakers, energy, and critical mineral supply chains 10.

In the corporate sphere, Apple faces a significant regulatory setback as a federal judge orders it to end its 27% fee on external App Store purchases, potentially opening the door for more competition and lower margins in its high-margin services segment 3. Amazon ’s $4B rural expansion plan and eBay ’s solid results point to continued resilience in U.S. e-commerce and logistics 715, while Pemex’s deepening losses and rising debt highlight ongoing risks in emerging-market energy 14.

Crypto and blockchain initiatives are gaining institutional traction. North Carolina’s legislative move to allocate up to 5% of state reserves to Bitcoin 9, along with the Solana Policy Institute’s SEC pilot proposal for blockchain-based equity trading, signal growing mainstream acceptance and regulatory engagement with digital assets 13. Robinhood ’s crypto-driven growth and product expansion further reinforce the sector’s momentum, even as volatility persists 8.

Traders should watch for follow-through in tech leaders, potential sector rotation if macro or policy risks escalate, and any signs of renewed volatility from trade headlines or regulatory developments. The interplay between U.S. industrial policy, global trade tensions, and digital asset adoption will be key macro themes as markets digest April’s recovery and look ahead to a crowded May calendar.