TL;DR

US Q1 GDP contracts; Fed signals no July cut; Iran tensions, Nike earnings, and platinum surge in focus.

Highlights

• US Q1 GDP contracted 0.5% (final), worse than expected; consumer spending revised sharply lower, imports surged ahead of tariffs, and inflation ticked higher15.
• Durable goods orders jumped 16% in May on strong transportation demand, but trade deficit widened to $96.6B and continuing jobless claims hit highest since 2021517.
• Boston Fed’s Collins said rate cuts are likely later in 2025, not at July FOMC, citing need for more inflation progress6.
• Platinum futures topped $1,400/oz (+56% YTD) on supply concerns and increased Chinese jewelry demand; palladium also rallied7.
• US strikes disabled Iran’s Fordow centrifuges; Iran moved to suspend IAEA cooperation2. US eased some Iran oil sanctions, allowing more crude exports to China, and is considering a $30B civil nuclear incentive318.
• Israel and US reportedly agreed in principle to end Gaza war within two weeks and establish a joint Arab administration in Gaza, though details remain unconfirmed4.
• NATO raised its defense spending pledge to 5% of GDP; US warns of trade consequences for non-compliance8.
• EU considering tariff cuts on US goods to pre-empt Trump-led trade clash; White House says July 9 trade deadline stands919.
• Tesla fired operations chief Omead Afshar amid ongoing sales slowdown and further executive departures; shares down 19% YTD10.
• Nike to report weak Q4 results after the close, with margins pressured by tariffs and discounting; focus on forward guidance11.
• Coinbase to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual crypto futures in US July 21; Senate GOP targets Sept. 30 for crypto market structure bill; FHFA directs Fannie/Freddie to count crypto in mortgage reviews121314.
• CoreWeave revived talks to buy Core Scientific (CORZ +30%); Cyngn soared 582% on Nvidia alliance; Rocket Lab +15% after successful launch and ESA contract151620.

Commentary

US macro data today reinforced a picture of slowing growth and persistent inflation. The final Q1 GDP revision showed a deeper contraction than previously reported, with consumer spending marked down sharply and imports distorting the headline due to tariff front-loading15. Durable goods orders rebounded strongly, but this was driven by volatile transportation orders, while the trade deficit widened and continuing jobless claims rose to their highest since 2021—suggesting the labor market is gradually cooling517.

The Fed remains cautious: Boston’s Collins reiterated that July is too soon for rate cuts, keeping the focus on incoming inflation and labor data6. Treasury yields may remain rangebound in the near term, with the front end sensitive to growth concerns and the long end anchored by sticky inflation.

Geopolitical developments are in flux. The US disabled Iran’s Fordow centrifuges in recent strikes, and Iran is moving to limit IAEA oversight2. At the same time, the US eased some oil sanctions, opening the door for more Iranian crude to China, and is considering a $30B civil nuclear incentive to entice Iran back to talks318. Oil and precious metals markets are reacting to these cross-currents, with platinum and palladium both rallying on supply and demand shifts7.

In equities, sector moves are pronounced. Defense names may benefit from NATO’s new 5% GDP spending pledge8, while consumer and cyclical stocks remain under pressure—Nike ’s after-hours results and guidance will be closely watched for signs of stabilization11. Tesla ’s management turnover and sales slowdown continue to weigh on sentiment10. In crypto, regulatory momentum is building: Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated perpetuals and new Senate legislation signal further market maturation1213, while the FHFA’s move to count crypto in mortgage reviews could drive incremental demand14.

Traders should watch for late-session volatility tied to Nike earnings, updates on Middle East negotiations, and any trade headlines as the July 9 deadline approaches1119.