TL;DR

US targets Russian oil buyers, hikes tariffs on Chinese graphite; yields surge; Chevron-Hess deal cleared.

Highlights

• White House to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, increasing compliance risks for global crude trade 1.
• US Commerce hikes anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite to 160%, pressuring EV supply chains and boosting North American graphite stocks 3.
• China quietly issues 2025 rare-earth quotas, tightens export controls, and alleges foreign plots to circumvent restrictions 213.
• Petrobras may reroute crude exports to Asia after US imposes 50% tariff on Brazilian goods; Brazil prepares formal response 2014.
• Iraq and Kurdistan agree to resume northern oil exports, but restart awaits final agreements amid ongoing security risks 4.
• US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% for first time since 2007; UK 30-year gilt yield hits 1998 high, reflecting fiscal and supply concerns 8.
• Chevron cleared to acquire Hess ’s Guyana assets after arbitration ruling; Chevron and Hess shares rally 12.
• Congress passes first federal stablecoin bill, awaits Trump’s signature; law to provide regulatory clarity for stablecoins 11.
• BlackRock seeks SEC approval to add staking to $7B Ethereum ETF, potentially offering yield to investors 10.
• China’s Commerce Minister meets Nvidia CEO as US allows H20 chip sales; US lawmakers press Commerce on export controls 517.
• EU proposes €2 trillion budget with major defense and Ukraine funding; Germany opposes, setting up difficult negotiations 9.
• Bank of Japan softens near-term tariff impact outlook but maintains caution ahead of July policy review; inflation forecast may rise 18.

Commentary

Energy and critical minerals remain in focus as the US moves to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, raising compliance hurdles for refiners and traders globally, particularly in Asia 1. Meanwhile, the US ramps up tariffs on Chinese graphite, a key input for EV batteries, intensifying supply chain pressures for automakers and battery producers 3. North American graphite producers saw gains, while automakers flagged higher costs 3. China’s opaque rare-earth quota issuance and new export controls, combined with allegations of foreign attempts to bypass restrictions, signal further tightening in strategic minerals—key for technology and defense sectors 213.

Fixed income markets saw renewed volatility as the US 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, and UK gilts hit multi-decade highs 8. The moves reflect strong economic data and increased fiscal supply concerns, with potential spillover into equity valuations and emerging market assets 8. Despite higher yields, foreign demand for Treasuries remains robust, led by Canadian inflows 8.

In commodities, Chevron ’s acquisition of Hess ’s Guyana assets is now cleared, granting access to a major oil resource and driving share gains for both firms 12. In contrast, the resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports remains delayed, with security and contractual uncertainties persisting 4. The US’s 50% tariff on Brazilian goods is prompting Petrobras to redirect oil flows to Asia, potentially shifting regional crude price dynamics 20. Brazil is weighing reciprocal measures, adding to trade friction 14.

On the regulatory front, Congress’s passage of the first federal stablecoin bill and BlackRock ’s move to add staking to its Ethereum ETF mark further integration of digital assets into mainstream finance 1110. Approval of staking could attract yield-seeking investors and intensify competition among asset managers 10. In tech, Nvidia ’s renewed chip sales to China highlight ongoing US-China tensions, with US lawmakers scrutinizing export control enforcement 517.

Traders should monitor further developments in US-Russia and US-China trade actions, sovereign yield movements, and regulatory shifts in digital assets. The BOJ’s July review and EU budget negotiations are key upcoming catalysts 189.