TL;DR

IAEA exits Iran, U.S. escalates global tariffs, BlackRock halts $15B Ukraine fund on policy risk.

Highlights

• IAEA inspectors have fully withdrawn from Iran, ending on-the-ground nuclear monitoring after Tehran’s suspension of cooperation 1.
• Trump threatens tariffs up to 70% on 12 countries; U.S. also warns of 17% tariff on EU food exports 218.
• India notifies WTO of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods over auto duties; deadline for a limited deal is July 9 5.
• France urges EU to tighten tariffs on Chinese imports; China retaliates with anti-dumping measures and shortens upcoming EU summit 4.
• U.S. expands AI chip export controls to Malaysia and Thailand to prevent rerouting to China 3.
• BlackRock halts $15B Ukraine recovery fund amid uncertainty over U.S. policy; Russia launches largest air assault on Ukraine since 2022 98.
• SEBI bars Jane Street and seizes $567M over alleged index manipulation, impacting liquidity in Indian derivatives markets 14.
• Dormant bitcoin wallets move $8.6B, raising concerns about a possible hack 15.
• Foxconn posts record Q2 revenue on AI server and iPhone demand; in early talks with Nissan to build EVs at Oppama plant 1617.
• China expands Taiwan Strait flight path, escalating tensions ahead of Taiwan’s military drills 6.
• Major internet outage in Iran cuts connectivity to 15%; cause unclear 12.
• EU plans emergency stockpiles of critical minerals and strategic goods amid rising geopolitical risk 20.

Commentary

Geopolitics and trade tensions remain the dominant themes for global markets this weekend. The IAEA’s withdrawal from Iran eliminates international oversight of Tehran’s nuclear program, increasing uncertainty in the region and adding risk to energy markets 1. The nationwide internet blackout in Iran, with no official explanation, further clouds the outlook for regional stability and logistics 12.

Trade policy risk is elevated. The U.S. is escalating its stance with tariff threats up to 70% on 12 countries and a potential 17% duty on EU food exports 218, while India is moving forward with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods 5. France’s call for broader EU tariffs on Chinese imports and China’s countermeasures signal a more fragmented global trade environment 4. These actions could weigh on equities in export-driven sectors and drive volatility in major currency pairs (USD , EUR , INR , CNY ) 256.

In Asia, U.S. export controls on AI chips now extend to Malaysia and Thailand, tightening the net around China’s semiconductor access and potentially impacting global tech supply chains 3. China’s unilateral expansion of a flight path in the Taiwan Strait ahead of Taiwanese military drills adds to regional security tensions, which could affect sentiment in Asian markets 6.

On the corporate side, Foxconn’s record revenue—driven by AI server and iPhone demand—highlights ongoing strength in tech hardware 16, while early-stage EV talks with Nissan signal continued sectoral shifts 17. In India, SEBI’s action against Jane Street is already impacting derivatives liquidity, a reminder of regulatory risk for global trading firms 14. In crypto, the sudden movement of $8.6B in dormant bitcoin warrants close monitoring for potential market disruption 15.

The suspension of BlackRock ’s Ukraine recovery fund and Russia’s intensified attacks underscore persistent risks to European investment flows and energy supply 98. The EU’s move to build emergency mineral stockpiles reflects growing concern over supply chain security 20.