TL;DR

U.S. threatens EU food tariffs; Trump signs $4.5T tax bill; Ukraine arms paused amid Russian attacks.

Highlights

• U.S. threatens 17% tariff on EU food exports; EU prepares €72B in retaliatory measures ahead of July 9 deadline.1
• Trump signs $4.5T tax-and-spending bill: permanent 2017 tax cuts, expanded credits, $1.2T in Medicaid/SNAP cuts; CBO projects $3.3T deficit increase.2
• U.S. extends AI chip export controls to Malaysia and Thailand to prevent rerouting to China.3
• IAEA pulls all inspectors from Iran after Tehran suspends cooperation, leaving uranium enrichment unmonitored.4
• U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth halts Ukraine arms shipment despite Pentagon readiness finding; follows record Russian drone/missile barrage on Kyiv.56
• Trump and Zelensky agree to strengthen Ukraine air defenses and explore joint production after latest Russian attacks.7
• SEBI bars Jane Street from Indian markets, seizes $567M over alleged index manipulation; Indian brokerage shares fall.8
• Dormant 2011 Bitcoin miner moves $8.6B in BTC ; large ETH withdrawals also observed.9
• European Commission to implement AI rules as scheduled, no grace period despite industry pushback.11
• U.S. and Switzerland near trade pact to exempt Swiss drug exports from proposed U.S. pharma tariffs.12
• Israel says it controls 65% of Gaza; conflict and civilian toll continue.10
• Ondo Finance acquires SEC-regulated Oasis Pro to expand tokenized U.S. equities offering.15

Commentary

The U.S. threat of a 17% tariff on EU food exports, with the EU preparing substantial retaliation, raises the risk of renewed trans-Atlantic trade friction.1 With the July 9 deadline approaching and no deal in sight, U.S. and European consumer, agriculture, and food stocks could see increased volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. is close to exempting Swiss pharmaceuticals from proposed tariffs, signaling a selective approach to trade partners and sector-specific impacts.12

President Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax-and-spending package, signed today, locks in permanent tax cuts and expands certain credits but also slashes Medicaid and SNAP by $1.2 trillion.2 The CBO’s projection of a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade could put upward pressure on Treasury yields, potentially weighing on rate-sensitive sectors even as tax relief may support consumer and select corporate earnings in the near term.

On the geopolitical front, the Ukraine conflict remains a key risk. The U.S. pause on arms shipments—despite internal Pentagon clearance—comes as Russia launches its largest drone and missile barrage on Kyiv to date.56 This, coupled with the IAEA’s withdrawal from Iran, leaves two major flashpoints with reduced international oversight.4 Defense, aerospace, and select energy names may see attention, while broader risk sentiment could be affected by any signs of escalation or further U.S. policy shifts.

In tech, the U.S. is tightening AI chip export controls to close loopholes for China,3 and the EU will implement its AI rules on schedule, raising compliance costs for global tech firms.11 In digital assets, large BTC and ETH wallet movements are drawing attention, though no immediate exchange selling is evident.9 Ondo Finance’s acquisition of Oasis Pro highlights ongoing convergence between blockchain and traditional finance, with regulatory compliance in focus.15

Traders should watch for developments on U.S.-EU trade talks, fiscal policy impacts on yields, and any updates on U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Tech and crypto sectors may see further volatility from regulatory and large-holder activity.