TL;DR

EU prepares tariffs on US services; GENIUS Act boosts crypto; Nvidia China chip restart stalls.

Highlights

• EU drafts tariffs on US services and export controls as Trump threatens 30% duties on EU goods; EU ready to retaliate if talks fail1.
• Trump signs GENIUS Act, creating first US federal stablecoin rules; industry expects increased institutional adoption2.
• Nvidia’s China AI chip sales restart stalls due to TSMC capacity constraints, limiting short-term China revenue despite eased US export curbs3.
• Netflix posts record Q2: $11.1B revenue, $7.19 EPS, net income +45%; shares fall 5% on currency and market concerns4.
• Microsoft warns of critical SharePoint zero-day exploited in mass attacks; CISA urges immediate defensive action5.
• US threatens to block Mexican flights and revoke Delta-Aeroméxico JV immunity over aviation policy dispute6.
• Tesla to report Q2 earnings Wednesday; shares down 20% YTD amid falling sales, leadership churn, and BYD’s EV sales lead7.
• Ethereum rallies to $3,800 on record ETF inflows, GENIUS Act passage, and anticipation of staking in ETFs1118.
• UK may sell $7B in seized Bitcoin to address budget gap, raising questions about government crypto sales12.
• ECB expected to hold rates this week amid Trump tariffs and global uncertainty; key US economic data and earnings in focus16.
• Trump and Xi may meet at October APEC summit as US-China tariff standoff continues; August 12 deadline for deal17.

Commentary

US traders face a complex macro backdrop this week, with trade tensions front and center. The EU is finalizing retaliatory tariffs and potential export controls on US services, responding to Trump’s threat of 30% duties on EU goods1. This standoff, along with the US threat to block Mexican flights and revoke Delta Air Lines -Aeroméxico JV immunity over aviation disputes, signals rising risk for companies with cross-border exposure and could pressure equities in industrials, airlines, and multinational tech6.

In tech, Nvidia ’s inability to quickly resume China chip sales—despite eased US export restrictions—highlights ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical headwinds for semiconductor names3. Meanwhile, Microsoft ’s SharePoint zero-day vulnerability is under active exploitation, posing operational and reputational risks for enterprise software providers5. Netflix ’s strong Q2 beat failed to support its stock, with the market focusing on currency and macro risks; traders should expect similar scrutiny as Tesla and other mega-caps report this week47.

Crypto markets are buoyant after the GENIUS Act established a federal framework for stablecoins, clearing a path for greater institutional participation2. Ethereum ’s rally is being fueled by record ETF inflows and the prospect of staking features1118, but the UK’s potential $7B Bitcoin sale introduces a new variable for digital asset supply12. Security remains a theme, with the CoinDCX hack underscoring ongoing vulnerabilities in centralized exchanges13.

On the macro front, the ECB is expected to hold rates, citing trade uncertainty, while US markets will be parsing a heavy calendar of economic data and earnings (15% of S&P 500 companies reporting)16. The possible Trump-Xi meeting at APEC and the August 12 deadline for a US-China deal will keep trade headlines in focus, with potential for volatility in both equities and FX17.