TL;DR

US, EU lift Ukraine weapon limits; OPEC+ weighs output as oil falls; major Bitcoin, crypto moves.

Highlights

• US, Germany, UK, and France remove range limits on weapons supplied to Ukraine; Ukraine may now strike inside Russia with Western arms. Kremlin warns of escalation 18.
• OPEC+ moves July output meeting up to May 31 as oil falls below $60/bbl; group may consider 411,000 bpd output increase 2.
• Fire halts Ecuador’s 110,000 bpd Esmeraldas refinery; global supply impact being assessed 7.
• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) buys 4,020 more Bitcoin for $427M; holdings now 580,250 BTC. Stock down 8% amid lawsuit 3.
• Trump Media plans $3B raise to buy Bitcoin and other crypto, signaling increased political interest in digital assets 4.
• ECB’s Lagarde says euro could become a US dollar alternative as dollar’s reserve share drops to 58%; calls for deeper EU financial integration 6.
• EU and US agree to fast-track trade talks amid ongoing tariff disputes 5.
• NATO to propose 5% of GDP defense spending target by 2032; Spain is last major holdout 10.
• Trump orders end to federal DEI programs; major US firms cut DEI spending, with notable declines at Tesla, Disney, and Meta 14.
• Trump considers redirecting $3B in federal grants from Harvard to US trade schools; lawsuit ongoing 18.
• Dubai launches government-backed real estate tokenization on XRP Ledger, targeting $16B in transactions by 2033 20.
• Solv Protocol integrates Chainlink Proof of Reserve for real-time verification of $2B in tokenized Bitcoin and RWA yields 19.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk is front and center as the US and European allies lift restrictions on weapon ranges for Ukraine, enabling strikes inside Russia 18. This escalation, coupled with the Kremlin’s warnings and NATO ’s push for higher defense spending 10, is likely to keep defense and aerospace names in focus and may inject volatility into European and global risk assets 18. The move also raises the risk of further sanctions and energy market disruptions 12.

Oil traders are watching OPEC+ closely, with the group advancing its July output meeting to May 31 as prices dip below $60/bbl 2. The potential for a 411,000 bpd production increase is being weighed against the sudden outage at Ecuador’s Esmeraldas refinery, which removes 110,000 bpd from global supply 7. Energy equities and oil-linked currencies may see volatility as traders position ahead of OPEC+’s decision and monitor for further supply shocks 27.

Digital assets remain in the spotlight. Strategy’s latest $427M Bitcoin purchase and Trump Media’s planned $3B crypto raise highlight growing institutional and political involvement in crypto markets, even as legal and regulatory risks persist 34. Bitcoin is up over 2% in the past 24 hours 3, and infrastructure advances—such as Solv Protocol’s Chainlink integration—are supporting the broader crypto ecosystem 19. Blockchain-related equities could see continued momentum on these headlines 3419.

On the macro front, ECB President Lagarde’s comments about the euro ’s potential as a dollar alternative 6, alongside fast-tracked US-EU trade talks 5, may influence currency and rates markets. US domestic policy shifts—such as the rollback of DEI programs and the proposed redirection of federal grants from Harvard to trade schools—reflect ongoing regulatory and cultural changes with implications for education, labor, and select consumer sectors 1418.