TL;DR

Apple faces AI delays and tariffs; US doubles metals tariffs; S&P 500 holds near highs.

Highlights

• Apple opens WWDC25 amid AI feature delays, 18% YTD stock drop, weak China iPhone sales, and new 25% US tariffs on iPhones 1.
• Trump administration doubles Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, spiking US aluminum premiums 54% and sharply reducing Mexican, Brazilian, and Canadian exports; EU and Mexico consider retaliation 2.
• US and China hold London trade talks on rare earths and reciprocal tariff reductions; Trump authorizes negotiators to ease some tech export curbs (excluding advanced AI chips) 34.
• NY Fed survey: one-year US inflation expectations drop to 3.2%; improved consumer sentiment and lower recession odds (26%) support S&P 500 near highs; VIX at 17.60, 10-year yield at 4.51% 619.
• Amazon announces $20B investment in Pennsylvania for AI/cloud data centers, creating 1,250 jobs and expanding AWS capacity 5.
• Precious metals rally: silver tops $50/oz in Canada, platinum up 15% to $1,200, palladium breaks resistance; gold steady 710.
• BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF hits $70B AUM in 341 days (fastest ever); MicroStrategy adds 1,045 BTC ; Circle stock up 347% post-IPO 121314.
• United Natural Foods cyberattack disrupts operations at major US grocery distributor, impacting Whole Foods supply chain 11.
• NATO chief urges 5% of GDP defense spending on Russian threat; Israel confirms Patriot missile transfer to Ukraine 89.
• Iran rejects US nuclear deal, demands Israel dismantle arsenal; Trump-Netanyahu call scheduled on response 10.
• OPEC May oil output rises by 150,000 bpd, below pledged hike; crude steady near $65 18.

Commentary

US equities remain resilient into the close, with the S&P 500 holding near record highs 19. Improved inflation expectations from the NY Fed survey and a drop in recession odds to 26% are supporting risk appetite, even as volatility measures like the VIX remain subdued 619. However, rotation within tech is evident: Apple faces ongoing pressure from AI delays, weak China iPhone sales, and new 25% tariffs 1, while Amazon ’s $20B data center investment underscores continued capital flows into AI and cloud infrastructure 5.

The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum have sharply increased US aluminum premiums and disrupted North American and EU supply chains, raising the risk of higher input costs for US manufacturers. Mexico and the EU are considering retaliation, while US manufacturers may see margin pressure 2. At the same time, US-China trade talks in London are focused on rare earth supply and reciprocal tariff reductions, with some flexibility on non-AI tech export controls 34. Any progress could ease trade tensions, but the rare earth issue remains unresolved.

Commodities are mixed: precious metals are rallying on technical and geopolitical factors, with silver, platinum, and palladium outperforming, while gold remains steady 710. Oil remains steady as OPEC+ output growth lags pledges 18. In crypto, institutional flows remain strong—BlackRock’s IBIT ETF 12 and Circle’s post-IPO surge 14 highlight robust demand, and MicroStrategy continues to add to its Bitcoin holdings 13.

Supply chain and geopolitical risks remain in focus. The cyberattack on United Natural Foods is disrupting grocery logistics, potentially impacting consumer staples 11. Defense and security headlines are also prominent: NATO is calling for higher defense spending 8, Israel has transferred Patriot missiles to Ukraine 9, and Iran has rejected the latest US nuclear deal proposal, with a Trump-Netanyahu call pending 10.

Traders should watch for further developments from US-China trade talks 34, ongoing fallout from the UNFI cyberattack 11, and late-session moves in metals, crypto, and defense-related names as geopolitical headlines evolve.