TL;DR

US CPI supports September Fed cut; S&P 500 hits record; China halts Nvidia chip buys.

Highlights

• US July CPI held at 2.7% y/y (vs. 2.8% expected); core CPI rose to 3.1%, above consensus 1.
• Markets now price in 80%+ odds of a September Fed rate cut; Treasuries rallied, dollar softened 1.
• S&P 500 hit record 6,423 (+0.9%), with broad sector gains; Nasdaq and Dow also set new highs 11.
• China ordered Bytedance, Alibaba , Tencent to pause Nvidia AI chip buys, raising risks for Nvidia’s China sales 2.
• OPEC raised 2026 oil demand forecast, but EIA cut Brent price outlook to $67 (2025) and $51 (2026); Brent traded near $66 3.
• Eurozone, China, and US long-dated yields climbed as global sovereign bonds sold off post-CPI 12.
• Palantir surged to record highs (up 150% YTD), with options signaling high volatility expectations 10.
• Ether ETFs saw record $1B daily inflow, pushing ETH to four-year high; BitMine Immersion expanded ETH holdings to $5B, filed for $20B stock sale 1315.
• Norway’s $1.6T wealth fund nearly tripled its indirect Bitcoin exposure; US pensions also increased BTC allocations 14.
• Alphabet rose 1% after Perplexity AI made a $34.5B bid for Google Chrome amid antitrust scrutiny 6.
• Ford recalled 103,000 F-150 pickups (2023–25) for axle bolt defect; no reported injuries 8.
• USDA raised corn crop outlook, sending corn futures to near year-lows; soybean and wheat stocks tightened 17.

Commentary

Today’s US CPI print was the main macro driver, with headline inflation steady at 2.7% and core CPI edging up to 3.1%, slightly above expectations 1. Despite the firmer core, markets interpreted the overall report as supportive of a September Fed rate cut—front-end Treasury yields slipped, the dollar eased, and equities rallied. The S&P 500 , Nasdaq , and Dow all hit new highs, with gains broadening out to financials and industrials, not just tech 11.

Tech sector news was mixed. China’s order to halt Nvidia chip purchases by major tech firms introduces fresh uncertainty for Nvidia and the broader AI supply chain, potentially pressuring US semiconductor names 2. Meanwhile, Palantir ’s sharp rally and elevated options activity highlight ongoing speculative interest in AI-related stocks, though valuations are stretched 10. Alphabet ’s modest gain followed a $34.5B unsolicited bid from Perplexity AI for Chrome, reflecting ongoing antitrust pressure and M&A speculation in the sector 6.

Crypto flows remain robust. Ether ETFs posted record inflows, driving ETH to a four-year high 13, while BitMine Immersion’s aggressive ETH accumulation and Norway’s wealth fund’s increased Bitcoin exposure confirm rising institutional interest 1415. These developments are supporting digital asset prices, even as regulatory and competitive risks persist.

On the commodities front, OPEC’s tighter 2026 demand outlook contrasts with the EIA’s bearish Brent price forecasts, leaving oil markets to digest conflicting signals 3. In agriculture, the USDA’s higher corn crop projection sent corn futures to near year-lows, weighing on related equities such as Deere , while tightening soybean and wheat supplies increased options activity 17.

Into the close, focus remains on follow-through in rates and equities as traders recalibrate Fed expectations and monitor headline risk from US-China tech tensions. Crypto and ags are likely to stay volatile on strong flows and shifting supply-demand outlooks.